AFYON PROVINCE, TURKEY EQ (M = 6.5R)
2002 February 03
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Amplitude of my signals was not very big
but was absolutely distinct its abrupt change. The earthquake even if in
very big distance (calculated 722 kilometers) occurred inside the time
window of the following three more dangerous days. Azimuth direction that
was calculated 2 days before the earthquake is absolutely successful.
Complete localization of the epicenter is not possible with one
only station that we have. |
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THE EARTHQUAKE |
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Final report by USGS National Earthquake Information Center is:
This earthquake became in distance of roughly 722 kilometres almost Easterly of my station. The epicenter was at the province AFYON of Turkey. The region is found on the Anatolian plate that is moved westwards to the Aegean Sea. The earthquake leaves back at least 46 dead, big numbers of injured persons while it caused total collapse even in ground floor buildings. The EQ was perceptible in Dodecanese Islands.
SHORT TERM PREDICTION You can see clearly the abrupt increase of the amplitude (on January 30) on my daily updated graph. Biggest amplitude was 8.66 mVolts that day.
This means that: WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKE. Come to see the mean daily tidal gravity variation graph for February 2002. The next three most dangerous days are the 3rd, 4th and 5th of February (Red bars).
This was proved absolutely precise as you can see on the above bar graph. ATTENTION: This graph does not mean anything without existence of signals. One additional conclusion is that: THIS EARTHQUAKE WAS THE MAIN because the amplitude of 24-hour oscillation is decreased afterwards the earthquake. Next question is WHERE WILL BECOME the EQ? On February 2 Dr. Thanassoulas (member our inquiring team) found the azimuth direction at 93 degrees, after process on my signals. It was about the same result of my process. That is to say almost easterly concerning my station. (The precise azimuth direction of the real epicenter was 97 degrees). Epicenter of the expected earthquake should be found NEAR OR ON THE LINE OF THIS BLUE-RED ARROW.
On the above map the blue-red arrow shows the azimuth direction that was calculated on February 2. Unfortunately, we have only one station and we cannot calculate the precise place of the epicenter on this line and also to approach the precise magnitude of the imminent earthquake. Are required at least two additional stations that we do not have until now. |
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