THE EARTHQUAKE
Reported by USGS National Earthquake Information Center as:
2001 07 26 00:21:36.9 39.054N 24.225E Depth: 10G km 6.0mb 6.6MS AEGEAN SEA
Mw 6.5 (GS), 6.5 (HRV), 6.4 (CSEM). Me 7.0 (GS). ML 5.9 (THE).
The event located by the National Observatory of Athens (Institute of Geodynamics) at the sea area North of Skyros island and in a 130km distance NNE of Athens and in a 130km distance of my station in Volos. It is important to note that the event was felt in a wide region about 200km radius around the epicentre area sending many residents into the streets. Skyros island worst hit, but no injuries have been reported.
Approximately 90 houses, mostly old traditional dwellings in the capital of Skyros were damaged. Amongst them, the almost 1000 years old monastery of St George the Arab which is situated inside the castle was badly damaged. The biggest effect to the Skyros capital population was the cut off the spring, which supplies with water the area.
SHORT- TERM EQ PREDICTION
STEP BY STEP
I present to you the graph (the green curve below) of my total signal of the 24-hour oscillation, from July 1 up to August 7, i.e. 12 days after this EQ.
From July 1 up to July 15, it is period of calm.
Next interval up to July 20, appears the beginning of final stage before the main EQ. Localised by the signals, at periods, the azimuth direction of Skyros island.
Follows the period of events up to August 4, and afterwards the period of calm.
Before the main EQ, happened two foreshocks in the same area. The first, on July 21 (M=4.8Ms), and the second on July 25 (M=4.2 Ms). The fact that this EQ was foreshock, appearred to me the next day July 22.
Green curve in the graph, appears that the amplitude of 24-hour oscillation increases dramatically, afterwards July 21. This means that this EQ was not the main.
Thus, we expected the main EQ in the same area i.e. the area of SKYROS island, in a few days.
Watching this graph on July 23, we can say that a big EQ incomes in a few days. Magnitude of this EQ must be higher than 5.7R because the amplitude of 24-hour oscillation is higher now, compared to previous recordings, and because the higher EQ magnitude for these was 5.7R.
Here is one animation graphic, that show the azimuth direction changes, which are calculated during pre-earthquake electrical signals (by VLP and 24-hour period), until the main EQ.
Thus, we know that a big EQ incomes in a few days, approximately in Skyros area (because the foreshock and the calculated azimuth direction that still the same), but WHEN?
Watching the graph of mean daily tidal gravity forces for this area (below), we find that the next high danger days, are July 25 plus or minus one day i.e. FROM JULY 24 TO JULY 26. Actually, it happens in the first 37 minutes on July 26, with a magnitude of 6.4R. (Always, I use UTC time).
This graph come from one scientific prediction computer program of tidal gravity forces. With red arrows appeared high danger dates for the month. They are located at upper or lower picks of the curve. We found that a percentage of about 75%- 80% of the significant EQ's in Greece, happened on these days, plus or minus one day.
ATTENTION: This graph means nothing without signals.
Was the main, this big earthquake? YES, because the signal decreased its amplitude the next days.
On July 30, became a strong aftershock of 5.4R. This aftershock, was also predicted, because one day before, appears an increase of signal. This is aftershock, because the signal decreased to normal level after this EQ. (See the signal graph above).
AUTHENTIC PREDICTION
From July 21 to July 27, my co-operator Dr. C. Thanassoulas, was in a seminar in Academy of Sciences in Sofia - Bulgaria. After his lecture on July 23, and for practical implementation, he gives forth that in July 25, plus or minus one day, will become in Greece an EQ with a magnitude of about 6.1R. This information is included, in the authentic proceedings of this seminar:
The EQ is affirmed during the works of this seminar.
NATURAL PROCESS
AT THE EPICENTRE AREA
It is already known that, continuous movement of lithosphere tectonic plates, produces pressures in the rims of the fault. When the value of those pressures exceeds some limit, piezoelectric phenomenon becomes observable. In the theoretical animation graph, that follows, appears the curve of piezoelectric voltage, in connection with the pressure (yellow curve).
Tidal gravity forces fluctuate that pressure, in the rhythm of oscillation with period of 24 hours. Thus, piezoelectric voltage should vary as it appears in Y-axis.
Let us to watch again the signal graph of real measurements, but now with the curve of medium signal values (blue curve). This is the form of piezoelectric voltage, from the tectonic plates continual movement, on the fault rims of Skyros area, during this period.
You can see the period of calm (July 1 to July 14) and the gradual increase of the piezoelectric voltage, as the pressure increase respectively, a few days before the fracture of rocks i.e. a few days before the main EQ on July 26.
Immediately after the big EQ, curve of piezoelectric voltage it falls abruptly, in values which it had before begun phenomenon. Increase again before last aftershock, and falls again to calm values. It shows clearly that the pressure in the fault area, was decreased abruptly, immediately afterwards the 6.4R EQ. Thus, we infer that this EQ was the main and it does not exist danger for a new big EQ.
Blue line in last graph, is not nothing more from a successful (perhaps it is the best) confirmation of theory for the genesis of the earthquakes, from the continuous movement and conflict of lithospheric plates.
